Leadership Void Fuels Disarray in Iraq
The delay in forming a government boosts the insurgency
and
imperils the new prime minister.
By Patrick J. McDonnell
Times Staff Writer
April 24, 2005
BAGHDAD — The protracted delay in forming an Iraqi government is
imperiling the appointment of its prime minister, providing a new
impetus for the insurgency and fanning renewed suspicion of the U.S.
role here, Iraqi and Western observers say.
Doubts are growing that the government, once formed, will have time to
complete the constitution-writing process — its principal task — by the
mid-August deadline.
Almost three months since lawmakers were
chosen in the landmark Jan. 30 election, they have yet to agree on the
composition of a government. The transitional National Assembly has
held several meetings but, stymied by ethnic, religious and political
divides, has yet to set its bylaws or begin discussing the constitution.
Sharp differences about power-sharing arrangements among the major
factions have blocked a settlement that would lead to the naming of a
Cabinet and filling other key posts.
One Western official
said the equivalent of a filibuster had emerged in an attempt to thwart
efforts by newly appointed Prime Minister Ibrahim Jafari, of the
majority Shiite Muslim bloc, to form his government. If he fails to do
so within two weeks, he will be replaced as premier.
Ethnic
Kurds and loyalists of outgoing Prime Minister Iyad Allawi are said to
have allied to stop Jafari, several Shiite insiders charge.
"Their intention is to keep Jafari out of his job," one despondent
Jafari supporter said Saturday. "Everything is bad."
Another sticking point is who gets to control billions of dollars in
reconstruction funds. Kurds are said to be pushing for the money to be
put under the auspices of a Kurdish-controlled ministry. Shiites fear
that would mean the bulk of the money would be funneled to the northern
Kurdish regions.
Amid surging violence in Iraq, the need to fill the void in authority
has become acute.
The top United Nations diplomat in Iraq, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, met
Saturday with Jafari and called for a quick end to the 11-week deadlock.
"There's a need to get the transitional government stood up quickly,"
said a U.S. official in Baghdad who declined to be identified. "There's
a public perception of greater insecurity."
The last two weeks
have seen a pronounced increase in attacks and a rise in sectarian
tensions and violence, including the discovery in the Tigris River of
dozens of bodies, allegedly Shiites killed by Sunni Muslim guerrillas.
The violence may well have surged even if a government had been in
office. U.S. commanders say that peaks and troughs in attacks have
characterized the 2-year-old insurgency. And there is a growing
consensus that the insurgents will not be defeated for years.
But on the streets and in the halls of power, Iraqis believe that the
pro-democracy momentum of Jan. 30, when millions defied guerrilla
threats and proudly displayed their ink-stained fingers after voting,
has been sapped as negotiations for top posts have dragged on.
"Of course the delay in forming the new government opens the way for
terrorist activities," said Hikamat Haky, a high school teacher in the
capital. "There is no authority."
The sense of frustration
among Iraqis is palpable, and many blame behind-the-scenes manipulation
by the United States. The Iraqi inclination to embrace conspiracy
theories involving schemes hatched in Washington has reemerged
forcefully.
"After the elections, people hoped to see a
government with authority and sovereignty, but they waited and waited
and finally gave up," said Jamil Hadity, a retired government worker.
"Now everyone realizes we are an occupied country that cannot have any
government of our own."
U.S. officials deny having interfered
and say they have stayed away from the talks on forming a government,
although the embassy here is monitoring developments closely.
"It's the Iraqis who are negotiating it, not us," a U.S. official said.
"We are encouraging them to stay engaged. It is a tough negotiation —
line by line, in some cases."
An underlying obstacle to a
settlement is simply persuading the often-competing ethnic, religious
and political factions in the National Assembly to agree in a nation
riven by mistrust and lacking a recent history of democracy.
By
most accounts, consensus has been reached on many key posts, including
the election of Jalal Talabani, the Kurdish chieftain, as president.
His two elected deputies are a prominent Shiite, Adel Abdul Mehdi,
finance minister in the outgoing interim government; and Ghazi Ajil
Yawer, a Sunni Arab who served as president. All sides have also agreed
to work on increasing representation of Sunni Arabs, who largely stayed
away from the January election because of a boycott and security
concerns.
But a major barrier in the negotiations, all agree,
has been the unsuccessful efforts to bring Allawi and his party into
the new government.
Allawi has long been a U.S. favorite, but
since his slate finished third in the election — winning 40 of the 275
seats in the National Assembly — he apparently has been relegated to a
sideline role. He has not gone away quietly, however.
The
dominant Shiite and Kurdish elected leaderships have called for a
government of national unity, which would theoretically give Allawi's
slate some ministerial portfolios.
The Shiite bloc controls a
slight assembly majority, 140 seats, and the runner-up Kurdish alliance
has 75 seats. Thus, the Shiites and Kurds must work together to muster
the two-thirds majority needed for major votes.
Some believe
that Allawi has yet to relinquish his designs on becoming prime
minister and may be working to derail Jafari, an Islamist appointed to
the post by President Talabani and his deputies.
Jafari will lose the appointment if he cannot form a government by May
7, 30 days after he was named.
That turn of events, deemed unlikely a few weeks ago, would necessitate
the naming of a new prime minister — and, some believe, Allawi might
step in.
According to that scenario, Allawi's push is
receiving behind-the-scenes aid from secular Kurdish factions that are
uncomfortable with Jafari, who is often called a cleric without a
turban.
Among other things, Jafari is known for declining to
shake women's hands, though he is said to have recently shaken the hand
of visiting U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
How Allawi, a secular Shiite, would win support of the largely Islamist
Shiite majority in the legislature remains unclear.
Although the Kurdish and Shiite blocs have negotiated together since
Jan. 30, the Shiites have long been suspicious of Kurdish territorial
ambitions in the oil-rich region of Kirkuk.
Allawi, who has a
longtime working relationship with the Kurdish leadership, may be more
amenable to Kurdish demands, many believe.
Waleed Hilli, an
advisor to Jafari's Islamic Dawa Party, said on Iraqi television
Saturday that Allawi's demands were "difficult, illogical and
unacceptable," but that Kurds were insisting on Allawi's involvement in
the government. Allawi is said to be seeking at least four ministries
for his party.
A conspiracy theory making the rounds is that
U.S. authorities, also uncomfortable with Jafari's religious bent and
his bloc's close relations with Iran, may be working quietly to torpedo
his nomination, using their strong ties with the Kurds and Allawi to
press the issue. Allawi has long had ties to the U.S. intelligence
community.
American officials deny any such role. Allawi called on officials
Saturday to complete the government as soon as possible.
Uncertainty is mounting even before the government takes on its
toughest task: writing the constitution, a document that will address
many contentious issues, including the role of religion in government,
federalism, Kurdish autonomy and the process used in future elections.
The deadline is mid-August, with a scheduled referendum on the document
set for mid-October.
But the assembly can opt for a six-month extension, an alternative that
many consider likely.
From the standpoint of new lawmakers, such an extension could have
another benefit: It would prolong the political lives of transitional
National Assembly members by six months. The current schedule calls for
another assembly election in December.
Times
staff writers Zainab Hussein, Suhail Ahmad, Raheem Salman, Caesar Ahmed
and Saif Rasheed in Baghdad contributed to this report.
