Bush Faces Hurdles to Rallying Support on Iraq
Barring
improvements in security, the president will struggle to reverse the
erosion of backing for the war seen in recent polls, experts say.
By Ronald Brownstein
Times Staff Writer
June 23, 2005
WASHINGTON — President Bush launches a major effort this week to
reinvigorate support for the war in Iraq, but he faces a fundamental
question: Can his words about the conflict still move public opinion?
Faced with rising criticism of the war, Bush hopes to persuade
Americans to stay the course in Iraq.
But many experts believe that events now enormously outweigh arguments
in shaping U.S. attitudes about the conflict. That means that unless
security in Iraq improves, Bush may find it extremely difficult to
reverse the steady erosion of support for the war evident in recent
public opinion polls.
"If you look historically at polling
numbers on [extended] military operations — leaving aside the second
World War, which had sustained high support — the long-term trend is
deterioration," said Eric V. Larson, a senior policy analyst at the
Rand Corp. and author of a new study for the U.S. Army on public
opinion and war.
"It is hard to imagine that long-term trend
being reversed anytime in the immediate future [on Iraq], particularly
based solely on rhetoric. "
After Bush's reelection last year,
discussion about Iraq in Washington receded, as the White House and
congressional Democrats focused primarily on the president's domestic
agenda. But this spring's wave of bombings in Iraq is provoking a
growing clamor on Capitol Hill.
Democrats remain divided on the war and uncertain how aggressively to
challenge Bush.
But earlier this month, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-San
Francisco) called the war "a grotesque mistake." And about 50 House
liberals recently formed an "Out of Iraq Congressional Caucus."
On Tuesday, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.) accused the
administration of a "credibility chasm" in misrepresenting progress in
the war and urged renewed efforts to secure more international
assistance. On Wednesday, Senate Democrats met in an unusual caucus
intended to begin developing a sharper party position on the war.
Most Republican lawmakers continue to support Bush on the conflict.
But in recent weeks, Bush has faced challenges from Republicans such as
Rep. Walter B. Jones of North Carolina, who has called for setting a
date to begin withdrawing American troops, and Sen. Chuck Hagel of
Nebraska, who has accused the White House of being "completely
disconnected from reality" in its assessments of conditions.
This restiveness forms a key part of the backdrop for Bush's new
political offensive.
Today, the administration will dispatch Defense Secretary Donald H.
Rumsfeld and top military officials to defend the war before the House
and Senate Armed Services committees.
On Friday, Bush will
appear at the White House with Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Jafari.
Next Tuesday, to mark the one-year anniversary of the installation of
the interim Iraqi government, Bush plans a major speech on the war,
possibly in prime time.
"We are making a concerted effort to
have the president put into context what people are seeing," said one
senior White House official, who requested anonymity when discussing
Bush's strategy.
Larson, in his study on public opinion,
concluded that two factors best predicted the level of public support
for a military engagement: whether the public thought the U.S. had
"important stakes" in the situation, and whether it believed the U.S.
was making progress toward its goals.
White House officials say
they do not expect Bush to announce new policies on Iraq. But he is
likely to emphasize arguments that aim directly at the two keys Larson
identified.
In an interview on MSNBC's "Hardball" this week,
Karl Rove, Bush's chief political advisor, previewed the case that the
president may make to persuade Americans they have a continuing stake
in stabilizing Iraq.
"I read, like you, the newspapers and
watch the television, and it is not a pleasant sight seeing people
die," Rove said. "But having said that, that's not the real question.
The question is, 'Is it in the American interest, will the world be
safer, will the world be more peaceful if America and our coalition
partners stand with the people of Iraq and move toward a democracy, or
will we be better off if we turn tail and run?' "
Another
Republican familiar with White House thinking said Bush would confront
the "progress" issue by highlighting the continuing steps toward the
writing of a constitution and election of a permanent Iraqi government.
"What's driving public opinion polls right now is the security
situation," said the strategist, who requested anonymity when
discussing White House matters. "But … part of our job is to make sure
[Americans] take into account other metrics, including the political
metric."
In this effort, though, the White House faces two large hurdles,
analysts in both parties agree.
If Bush seems too upbeat while Americans are seeing almost daily
carnage in Iraq, he could appear out of touch or disingenuous —
inspiring more of the criticism that Biden and Hagel recently leveled.
The bigger risk is that ongoing violence in Iraq could wash away any
gains the president makes with public opinion, the way waves wash away
writing in the sand.
"People know he's a man of strong
convictions, and they also believe that it's better to have an Iraqi
democracy than not to have one," said Karlyn Bowman, a public opinion
analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think
tank. "But they judge everything based on performance."
Indeed,
over the last two years, support for the war has spiked upward in most
polls around distinctive events, such as the capture of Saddam Hussein
in December 2003, and the Iraqi election in January.
But each of those gains eventually dissipated as the violence continued.
In CNN/USA Today/Gallup and ABC/Washington Post national surveys this
month, about two-fifths of Americans said they thought the war was
worth fighting. That's the lowest level of support either poll has
recorded for the war. Nearly 60% in the Gallup survey also said they
wanted to withdraw at least some American troops, the highest level
recorded for that question.
The erosion of public support for
the war since January's highly praised Iraqi election suggests that
even continued political progress in Iraq, unless it prompts a
reduction in violence, may not create lasting support for the mission.
Perhaps the biggest uncertainty is whether sustained public anxiety
over the war will affect the president's policies.
White House officials insist that Bush will not change direction, even
if his new effort fails to rally public support. Larson, the Rand
researcher, said that support for Iraq was actually holding up better
than he expected. He noted that America kept troops in Vietnam for five
years after the war had lost majority support in polls.
And
although the Democratic and Republican officials uneasy about the war
are criticizing Bush more sharply, most have been reluctant to propose
significant shifts in his policies, like setting a date to withdraw
U.S. troops. Biden, for instance, condemned that idea this week.
"This is like 1968 or 1969, when the political elite has concluded this
is, in fact, an unwinnable war but … has decided it cannot make the
obvious call for withdrawing for fear of seeming weak," said Ivo
Daalder, a former National Security Council aide to President Clinton.
"I don't think we are going to change policies in Iraq until someone
puts on the table a changed policy in Iraq. But who are the ones who
are going to do it?"
